mm43
The Prior using 70% FD and based on MAK/IAC data does seem rather misplaced. The descents used were, in the majority, of high rate and short period, and do not equate well to the facts associated with AF447 as we know them.
Agreed !
Most of the scenarios were more or less instant drop or spiral dive sometimes with mid air disintegration. AF447 took significantly longer than most of those cited.
However, assuming a major upset of AF447 it is still very unlikely that it traveled an effective distance of much more than 20nm
IF it was in the water at 2:15.
quite a number of pages back I made a very rough calculation / guestimate / however you want to call it, assuming a rather 'benign' scenario to get the plane into an 'arrival' attitude matching the description of BEA.
That smooth scenario would cater for ~25nm assuming no change of flight path (which you btw. would not expect in a LoC situation).
That's why I still assume anything more than 20nm from LKP rather unlikely.