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Old 2nd Feb 2011, 17:50
  #1490 (permalink)  
MountainBear
 
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I am not supporting any judgment or drawing any conclusions in this thread about the political debate. But I will say this:
Given the transient nature of fog I think the weather report argument is being overblown here.
Both you and F4 are overplaying the transit nature of fog. Meteorology has advanced a great deal in the last few decades. 8-12 hour forecasts are accurate to about 80%. Short term forecasts (4-6 hours) to the 90-95% range.

I appreciate the fact that the impact of fog on flying decisions is not always clear cut. The Met forecast is not good enough to predict, for example, if the fog is 10 or 50 feet above ground level from one ten minute period to the next. But fog is not a whimsical phenomena. It obeys the same physical laws as the rest of the universe. If the short term forecast is predicting fog; there's fog. It's irrational to suggest otherwise.
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