-
It was reported that the commander of the crew, captain Protasiuk, did not want to fly after receiving the weather forecast.
Or maybe the crew had no precise weather forecast? Maybe Warsaw has not known that the fog thickened in Smolensk?
Given the transient nature of
fog I think the weather report argument is being overblown here.
As far as I understood the fog caught the Russian meterologists by surprise. The yak40 managed to land in marginal conditions approx. 1 hour before the crash - already after the Tu had departed from Warsaw. So how could have Protasiuk argued that the conditions in Smolensk are inapproproate for landing prior to his departure from Warsaw?
Besides - this was a VIP flight, which are governed by somewhat different - let's call it economics - than commercial aviation. A commercial operator will always prefer to stay put at the base until the destination is clear, especially on such a short haul flight. On a VIP flight it may be preferable to depart and hold until conditions clear at destination or divert, refuel and fly back - because for VIP flights cost is of secondary importance.
Both options (hold & divert/flyback) were available to the flight. A 3 hour delay (which is what a Moscow diversion & refuel would probably amount to at the most) would not have ruined the Katyn event. (
BTW, has anyone asked: How much reserve fuel did the Tu 134 have on board for holding? Was this the max possible given the load? Why not?)
No conspiracies, no pressure. The guys wanted to do a descent to MDA to judge the situation /
perhaps they took it as a point of honour to 'try' after their friends in the Yak advised them to 'try'?/ - and then the lack of airmanship kicked in. Come on - you say this guy didn't want to fly as he felt it is so so risky, but then he just tries this 'trial approach' without a proper crew briefing on his intentions. It does not add up.
Golf-Sierra