RansS9, seeing as you’re asking. From an operators perspective if the idiots realise what they have done then
It has to be an off the shelf design if you want to reduce the "risk" (whatever it is supposed to mean today
) and cost, given what has just happened I would say there would be no appetite for risk at all.
The RJ has opened up new questions about procurement, if it is successful then maybe we should partner another Countries Forces and offer to pool our Crews while maintaining some sovereign control (It will be interesting to see if we can ensure our aims remain compatible, we can have very different policies. e.g.: Rendition flights)
However as has been said on various threads, our temptation to tinker with platforms to theoretically keep cash in the UK is almost impossible to resist. Unless there is total reform of the way we procure equipment then I believe we are doomed to make the same mistakes again.
Anyway
Old P-3s from somewhere, possible but not very sensible, the arguments about 50s era designs, already worn out, out-dated equipment. Some in the desert, Canada not upgrading all its but all old.
New P-8s whenever they can get us on the production line, but the design is operationally unproven and new tactics being devised to cover deficiencies. BAMS would be needed to make it work as envisaged.
The Japanese XP-1 (P-1 I guess) again unproven and possibly risky support. Oh and they will not export it (yet). No doubt the most risky solution, but it does look to have a good MPA configuration, time will tell.
French Atlantique 2s if they would allow us to buy/use up the airframes they are not updating and then possibly put them through the update when we can afford it.
Bear F, only kidding!
These would all more or less cover the capability gap (In all MR2 tasks that I have been involved with) that we have had for nearly a year now.
If you want to trade off some capabilities then there are various smaller platforms that can provide some or lesser capabilities, such as
CN-235 or 295, ATR-72, Fokker 50/60, Dash 8, Do 328, SAAB 340 etc. I'm not sure which of these would be better, the 235/295 and Fokker 50/60 are the only ones I know that are in Military service rather than just an airliner with a radar and camera bolted on. Although the 235/295 looks the part I'd go with which ever has the best speed/endurance/range/capacity etc. The C-27 might work but isn't really an off the shelf MPA.
Personally I think Atlantiques would get us back in the game in maybe 3-5 years, P-8s at least 5-10 years. I was never a fan of the Atlantique but on paper it sounds good, 360 deg radar, fantastic visibility from flt deck, beams and nose! big bombay and floats on water, I've seen the pics
And of course never buy the A model of anything!