Mutt
You asked
Have you compared the -400 with a -300 or -200? Or even a Stage 3 B727?
I have now and the numbers speak for themselves.
Aircraft MTOW* TO APP Stage
Boeing 747-400 875 97.4 102.1 3
Boeing 727-200** 203 94.3 99.3 3
**ROHR STC SA4363NM
Parabellum, you said
On another tack, take the inclusive tour market, no requirement to give a reasonable spread of flights through the day, just get them there, to Palma, Malaga or where ever. Which will be cheaper, one B747-400 with a value written down to a few million, carrying 450-500 passengers, incurring one landing fee, one navigation charge, no overseas refelling, (unless it is cheaper, then there is a huge capacity to tank in cheap fuel), one Tech Crew, one ATC slot, one set of ground movement and handling charges etc. etc. or three B737/A320 aircraft? (I have deliberately left any maintainence costs out but doubt if they would be deal breakers).
I could not find any data for Palma or Malaga, but did find some movements by aircraft type for Bristol (UK) 2009, a regional airport that does offer IT flights to such destinations.
The number of 747 movements in 2009 was a big round number, 0.
I think this shows your argument is fine in theory, but does not happen in practice.
Aircraft Movements
Airbus A319 22082
Boeing 757-200 2801
Airbus A320 2120
Boeing 757-300 17
Airbus A321 113
Boeing 767-300 104
BAe Avro RJ-100 356
Cessna Citation 2
BAe Avro RJ-85 677
Embraer ERJ-145 3
BAe146-200 593
Embraer ERJ-190 14
BAe146-300 372
Fokker 70 1508
Boeing 737-300 154
Fokker 100 665
Boeing 737-500 9
Boeing MD80 3
Boeing 737-700 1693
Boeing MD83 1
Boeing 737-800 9462
DC-9 2
Let's just face it, the 747 was a magnificent aircraft and created 40 years of competitive advantage for Boeing, but it is now in it's declining phase, where over a period of many years, the 742, 743 and 744 fleet sizes will decrease as it is replaced by newer and more efficient fleets.
The 747-8 appears to a good future in the parcel business and so will carry the torch into the future.
But as a widely seen passenger aircraft, the clock is ticking.
Paxboy, many thanks for your kind instruction!!