I do know that at my base, which is one of the larger bases, and at two of the other bases that I've been to, new CUs are not even keeping abreast of resignations. I've also been seeing an increase of walk offs, people not serving their notice period. This makes forecasting crewing numbers very difficult There is no incentive to leave on good terms with the no reentry policy.
Will we see aircraft grounded this summer with empty flight decks? Nah. A major problem for the flight deck community in FR is a lack of historical knowledge. Cast your minds back to winter 04/05. Futura, Eirjet and Titan to name but a few were operating flights because of the, ahem, "Boeing Machinist Strikes". There was a lack of crew because the -200 to -800 conversion process hitting the skids due to the legal dispute and clogging up the sim and training department. There were also lots of jobs around and FR were having trouble getting the numbers despite a number of incentives to entice Captains.
In fact, despite this background they were still managing to push down terms and conditions slowly but surely. This is a very determined employer. Who else would be ambitious enough to drive down salaries during a crew shortage!? But they did it. Part of the tool kit is their ability to coerce the IAA into giving licence validations, the only EU CAA to do so to my knowledge, effectively bypassing European licensing requirements/restrictions/burdens delete as appropriate. There was also even a time where they managed to persuade the government for work visas. Despite the posturing in the press there is a tremendous pressure not to be seen to impede one of the few so call success stories of the Irish economy. This opens up a whole new world of possibilities. There is always a pool of pilots somewhere in the world they can tap. Can't speak English? Not really a barrier.
If they have to they can steal guys away from other airlines by offering them a base they want at the expense of a guy who has served his time and has a transfer request in.
They will find a way. If the pilots have to pay for it that's just tough. No one wanted to get involved in a Union. This is the price of inaction. Hoping that this will result in a windfall payrise is delusional.
Someone earlier addressed a member of the management directly on this thread. You can be sure they read these threads. In one of the pay talks a very senior member of the board remarked on something he'd read on PPRuNe.
Last edited by Telstar; 25th January 2011 at 10:56.