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Old 25th Jan 2011, 06:11
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pool
 
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Very interesting indeed. It is understandable to a certain extent. It is just a bit ironic, if we go back some years, when PanAm, TWA, BA, Lufthansa and Air France flooded the whole world with their superior capacity. Everything was in nice harmony for the West back then. It is not only the airline industry, but the whole global trade that experiences a shift of power to the south. The defense mechanism through restrictive politics is therefore an understandable reaction. Are the new kids on the block 'unfair', to use the most repeated word in this struggle? Through today's lens maybe yes, if we consider a wider time frame though, it might appear not entirely. It will be for the historians to judge in another couple of decades.

Interesting times ahead. I am pretty sure that this cold economical war will escalate before IATA, ICAO, WTO and other bodies will be able to contain it. Very soon I see some important cancellations of orders of new aircraft. That might soothe the airline lobbyists, but for the broader economy it could also spark controversy. The manufacturing industry and with it many unions (workers and voters) will see their interests harmed and curtailed. They will want to keep their orders and jobs and the regional politicians will counterweigh heavily the national ones.

What will then prevail? The interest of a industry that in many parts of the world has itself been widely protected and subsidized by their governments, all though crying foul today if others do it. Or the broader, globalized industry who basically does not care who uses their end product. Time will tell. The only thing that is for sure, is that enacting of protectionism is maybe the worst first step to balance power. This has been proven over and over AND is by the way still the Achilles heel of the mentioned countries in their own backyard, politically and economically. Maybe the West should start there and not with the almost only truly globalized industry of those countries.

If I was in charge at EK, which is the main target until Qatar has more ammunition, I would cancel a respectable order of A350ies. This model is still far away from delivery, but has already sucked up a huge amount of taxpayers subsidies. This would send a strong signal to negotiate and not just trying to eliminate a competitor with measures that were previously ousted by the same protagonists.

And then wait and see what develops.
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