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Old 23rd Jan 2011, 01:59
  #7209 (permalink)  
konstantin
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Central Azervicestan
Posts: 68
Seabreeze, that probably is as good a post as any I have seen in relation to the supposedly definitive "settled science" we are constantly bombarded with.

Just one thing, you say

However, the general physics suggest that "Droughts and flooding rains" will always be with us and can only become more extreme if/when the SSTs increase.
I have gained the distinct impression that the jury is still out on directly linking SSTs with extreme weather events, there seems to be a lot of "he said/she said" out there on this particular subject.

Increased precipitation per se in theory - yup.

PS - just found this from Judith Curry. A tad generic, but...


"A further issue is that future extreme events that are even more extreme than anything we’ve seen in the 20th century have to be classified as emergent phenomena from the model: well outside the range for which the model has been validated. While I made the statement of “overconfidence in IPCC’s 20th century attribution,” I have to say that I find no basis for confidence in the model-based attribution of extreme events. Yes, there is the issue of more water vapor in the air with warmer sea surface temperatures, but exactly how this gets translated into individual weather events is not at all straightforward (this will be the topic of a future post).

Summary: Not sure what the motive is for the attribution of extreme events, other than to build political will for climate change policies. More comprehensive analysis of regional extreme events (including those in the paleo records, of which we need more of) in the context of known modes of natural climate variability is probably the single most useful thing that could be done in this regard. In terms of attribution services and the broader issues of a National Climate Service, well don’t get me started (more on this in a future thread.)"

Last edited by konstantin; 25th Jan 2011 at 11:11. Reason: More info
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