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Old 22nd Jan 2011, 16:30
  #1230 (permalink)  
RegDep
 
Join Date: May 2010
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After reading RockShock's post #1222 and and SadPole's post #12226 a thought occurred to me:

Please note that the point below is strictly non-normative (not how things should have been but how things were)

1. If shown to be true, that at 8:37:36 a person in the cockpit said to the effect of 'it is quite murky out there' instead of saying 'things may get pretty bad (if we do not land there)', and .....

2. If shown to be true, that landing in weather that was below minima was, if not SOP, alt least a usual/acceptable/accepted practice at the PAF unit flying VIPs,...

... it follows that the crew likely was not under more than normal/usual stress than on VIP flights in general, and that no overly / undue / unbecoming / extra pressure needs to be assumed to have been exerted, nor was such felt by the crew (at least there is no proof that such was felt).

This seems to me to satisfy the facts in the report, and to conclude that the accident was caused by "a scud run gone bad" because of the terrain that was different than thought/expected by the crew.

I addition, this would allow to do away the second paragraph of the Immediate Cause in the report (reference to Blasik's influence in the cockpit) and replace it with a short statement of non-sterile cockpit environment, and the first paragraph in the Contributing Factors (reference to the discussions with Protocol Director), and especially the last sentence mentioning the Main Passenger. This could be replaced with a general statement of the stress in VIP flights of this caliber.

One consequence would also be that the ATC role at the final stages of the flight would be next to moot, because the crew was on the landing mode (a bit like the Yak-40 had been somewhat earlier: they were told several times to go around, only to be found on the runway by the ATC!)

The above would also help do away some of the problems between the Russians and Poles: It would remove some of the irritating statements of the Russians and "allow" the Poles to let loose of the ATC.

I stand to be corrected.

Reg
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