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Old 9th Jan 2011, 02:21
  #32 (permalink)  
SNS3Guppy
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
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It's never been about religion. Religion in the region is little more than a tool for each interest group to leverage the masses beneath them, and that ranges from the Saudi family to the governments in the Emirates, to Palestine, to Iran. Religion is a distraction; the politics exist without it; religion is little more than a tool for them.

Whatever differences exist between the Keeper of the Two Holy Mosques and Israel are meaningless in the event of military action. The Israelis are ready and very willing to hit Iran, and Iran keeps rattling the cage. Give it time, and folks in Dubai are going to see war up close and personal.

Iran is pouring money and effort into maintaining destabilization in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and is biding it's time on Iraq. Iran has been pouring weapons and personnel, and providing training for insurgency in Iraq, and well as promoting very large sums of money as rewards for terrorist actions in Iraq. For several years now, the reward money paid to Iraqi criminals has largely come out of Iran.

The Iranian people are fed up. Insurrection is a boiling undercurrent there, and any solid signs in destabilization will certainly encourage the people. The people are not necessarily with the government, and it's definitely NOT a religious issue. That makes the Iran a potentially very unstable country. That makes Iran a threat to other nations in the region. Whereas operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have largely been orderly, military operations, Iran threatens to become a destabilizing force for the region. It may also certainly threaten nearby populations, and that most definitely includes UAE.

Anybody who lives in the region should give careful thought to their options should things change. Whether it's starting with stockpiling food and water, or having transportation means ready, to ensuring that their embassy has current details on file, one really ought not wait for a balance of power, military action, insurrection, or other action to cause a potential change in the balance of power. For expats and infidels, you can certainlky et that religion may come into play, if only as a weapon used to edge whatever balance of power may be.

Dubai is a great city, full of modern conveniences, expensive architecture, and world business. It's an attractive place to be. It's very friendly to the west, it's got easy transport anywhere in the world, even easy transport across town. It's also a step from catastrophe if money, oil, or a stable government is cut off. It's an expensive place, and a hard place to survive if one doesn't have a solid income, especially for a foreigner. As nice as it may be, and as full of modern conveniences as it is, it's no different than the rest of the middle east. There's nowhere that should be considered "safe," particularly to expats. The relative degree of comfort and complacency that most enjoy now can easily disappear in a heartbeat, weather at the hands of terrorists or at the hands of nationalized interests from any number of sources.

Perhaps an evacuation plan isn't news, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be taken seriously.
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