Turbine D
Glad to see that this thread finally ended up in the tech section where it belongs, especially since it's only speculation and not news worthy.
Your post above has come the closest to describing the key factors and differences in the two incidents.
However, once again I would urge you to forget about the significance of friction once the failure scenario has started. At the speeds that turbo machinery runs the interface conditions in a contact environment is nothing but molten metal.
The energy is all in the gas stream, so if you want to corral this energy you have got to get rid of the driving airfoils within the time it takes to blow the flame out the tailpipe. If the airfoils remain for even seconds, it's probably too late.