Can I start this post with a plea - that might seem obvious - at a turn point always turn the shortest way to the next track (unless there is something specified to the contrary).
Seems that some people have forgotten this very important principle and the fact that the turn area only protects turns in this direction.
Shortest by what measure? Track miles or distance from the IAF? Turning left or right here achieves one but not the other!
Also, by my reckoning, if a medium jet turned left out of the hold it would intercept the initial just in time to start the descent. If it turned right it would have a nm to spare.
Neither tailwinds or DR is relevant as a right turn would stay with the holding pattern until a track of 300º had been achieved to intercept the initial.
It doesn't matter what way you cut it, staying south of TGO for any manoeuvring is covered by the hold, the initial and the arrival buffer areas.