My thinking is that this is a cost saving measure more than a concern over surplus. Not sure whether there is a difference in legalities between redundancy and severancy, but the impression I got was to let senior guys who have had enough or want to snapple their final salary pension while it is secure can go with extra incentive. I understand such schemes are very beneficial to the Airline and repay themselves very quickly.
It could go either way. No takers then the Airline either carries it surplus for the summer (or takes other measures), or there are a good number of takers, any surplus wiped out and the possibility of recruitment, especially if tour ops ask for more capacity. TCX do seem to have a concern over rated, experienced Pilots so they may not be hasty in their actions as we are currently in a very dynamic period in Aviation, changing weekly.