ORAC / LO / DZ
A most interesting discussion. As LO so memorably puts it:
Just my 38 trillion cents worth...
Quite!
The case for Dave-A seems clear to me; there are lots of F-16s that will need replacing over the next 15 years, and when the USAF decided to go down an "As Stealthy As Possible" (ASAP?!) policy in the early 90s, it seems to have been decided that the High/Low mix of F-15 / F-16 would be replicated in F-22 / Future Stealthy Attack Jet that became JAST and then JSF. The rationale for an ASAP force seems to be a(n extremely expensive) combination of the USAF determination to maintain "Air Dominance" and also to be able to take on modern IADS beyond S-400 / S-500 without unacceptable casualties. (For the record, good luck with that.)
But once the USAF decided on JSF and not F-16 Block 60/70/80 or whatever, then the die was cast - something the other side of 1,500 Dave-As are required. For the allied F-16 / F-18 (and in Turkey and Japan, F-4 operators) without the domestic capability or willingness to design their own, then JSF became the only game in town - so I expect 250 - 500 export orders, dependent on price, and these will be largely Dave-A.
For the USN, Dave-C seems at once more and less important. It is vital if the USN want to play as equals with the USAF ASAP concept off the CVs, but if F-18G Growler works as advertised, then there is a credible fallback in a F-18E/F/G airwing out to 2030 or so - because not every (indeed, hopefully very few) states of concern will be mounting S-400 / S-500 led IADS, and therefore a legacy Gen 4+ fleet still has a credible role to play. For allied nations in the cat-n-trap game, the same choices apply.
For the UK, this means Dave-C if we want the QE-class airwing to go beyond 2030 - it would be a pretty average return on investment to have to bin the jets after 10 years or so (and no, because it would be a crap decision doesn't necessarily mean that the MoD will make it - it merely increases the change of them making it!
) But the UK is probably unique in this - I can't think of another western ally planning on CTOL CVs without an indigenous CV design.
But the rationale for Dave-B has never stacked up for me - the ConOps of Dave-B in USMC service seem barmy - "we need a stealthy platform to go ashore with a MEU / MAGTAF when the USN can't be arsed to send a CVBG". Really? So unlikely as to be untrue - and madly expensive into the mix. I know that the Italians, Armada Espana and the Israelis may be upset, but with fiscal pressures the way they are, there's just no basis for continuing with Dave-B.
And yes, F-136 is critical in making sure that the F-135 programme stays on track - the 1980s Great Engine War was the best possible advert for competitive selection as both F100 and F110 programmes consistently upped their games.
S41