Originally Posted by
johns7022
Galaxy - 76000 Crews performed RTOs, with a 99.99% success rate of not hurting the plane or passengers.
Translated: That's 76000 crews that think your a nut Galaxy for telling them they should have flown the problem up into the air.
Absolute garbage.
That's 76000 RTOs, the overwhelming majority of which were excuted from speeds well below anything being proposed by you. If you are going to discuss the risk inherent in a HIGH SPEED RTO you have to base the discussion on what happens when you actually do a high speed RTO - not what happens when the TOCW fires at brakes release and the "RTO" is from about 15 knots!
I'm going to try to explain the error in your "analysis" by making up some numbers, but only because I can't be bothered tracking down the actual numbers.
In the last 30 years - 1980-2010 - there have been 10 million aircraft takeoffs from the state of Florida. Of these 10 have resulted in an accident resulting in either loss of life, loss of the aircraft or both. (the actual numbers are made up - the ratio - one accident per million flights - is about right for commercial transportation.). 135 of those flights have been on the Space Shuttle.
You are attempting to argue that because a very large number of events have had "safe" outcomes, all of those events are equally safe. The statistics show that the hazard of an RTO is very much a function of the rejection speed. To ignore that is akin to claiming that the risk of the next shuttle launch resulting in disaster is approximately one in a million - ignoring all the evidence specific to the events in question, which suggest its historically more like 1 in 100.
I do risk analysis for a living, and risk analysis specific to the hazards associated with aircraft operations at that. If I were to argue, based on 76000 RTOs covering all conditions, that high speed RTOs were also equally "safe" (ignoring all the data to the contrary) and that we could happily certify our products on such a basis - well, I wouldn't be doing what I do for a living much longer.