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Old 3rd December 2010 | 13:50
  #2558 (permalink)  
SaturnV
 
Joined: Mar 2001
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From: us
The backward drift analysis graphic is on pdf p. 24 of the BEA PPT presentation.

http://www.asso-af447.fr/images/docs...bre%202010.pdf

I believe the ACARS triangle marks the LNP.

On the graphic on p. 18, I believe the dot marked MF2 is the Meteo France calculation of the most likely impact point. As can be seen, it is to the left of the leftmost boundary of the search grids flown through June 5. I believe the grid that came closest to this point was the first day's search.

The Meteo France estimate of the impact point (at least that's what I assume it represents) is more clearly displayed on p. 14.
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As to why initial search grids focused on the right of the track, I've not seen an explanation. Perhaps, the Mesoscale Convective System was drifting west to east, and if there had been an in-flight breakup, winds would have carried parts of the plane to the east. Perhaps, ATLANTICO noted that AF 459 following had ultimately deviated to the right when encountering the same MCS, and thought AF 447 might have done similar. When debris was spotted on the second and third days well to the south and east of the track and LNP, search efforts were concentrated there until the sightings proved to be false.
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