AF 447 Search to resume

[slats11]

Hi p51

There is no shortage of speculation. But there are also a few fairly hard facts. The best chance of finding AF447 is to find an explanation that unifies these few facts.

1. We have bodies drifting North when they were found - in fact just a little west of north (357). Not ENE or NE as the current charts showed. This suggests that the point of impact is somewhere to the SE of where we have looked so far. How far SE is speculation, but I am fairly convinced that SE is the direction to look next. I believe this information provides the single best indicator of where AF447 may have ended up.

2. Takata extrapolated the observed drift of the bodies, and came up with an impact position of 1.915 N, 30.390 W. His theory to explain this was that the aircraft turned right to the SE an attempted to divert to Fernando de Noronha. This extrapolation was based on the assumption that the current was exactly the same for the 5 days prior to bodies being recovered as it was for the period when they were being discovered. In the absence of any definitive information, this assumption is as reasonable as any other. However my guess (speculation) is that the impact is not that far to the SE. If the aircraft had a significant period of controlled flight after turning, then you would have expected a radio call of some sort, evidence of life-jackets, and cabin crew secured in their seats. None of this appeared to have happened, and so it is likely that the end was faster than Takata's theory.

3. There was at least one (possibly more) submarines searching for the pingers. The mission and the very survivability of these submarines depends on finding things that are trying not to be found. How could they search for weeks and not locate something trying to be found? Sure the pingers have limited range - more so if you are listening several miles above them. Yes I appreciate the challenges posed by extreme depths and that submarine sonar is probably not designed to find enemy submarines that deep (there being no point). And multiple thermoclines and mountain ranges will complicate the task greatly. But nothing definite identified. I could accept not localised due to the complexity of pinning the source down. But not even heard. No other civilian assets heard anything either. We they all listening in the wrong place?

4. No life-jackets. No radio call. Cabin crew seats that were not used. All this suggests things went very bad very quickly.

I have left the pollution spot out of this as I do not think we really know its origin - thank you to mm43 for clarifying that. If you chose to include the pollution spot as a reliable datum point however, then this would also support a crash SE of last known position. Not very far however due too the proximity of this when found on the 2nd.

Can anyone produce a credible explanation of the aircraft turning (either controlled or not) to the SE, flying for some distance south of 3 N, and no pilot able to get out a radio call, nor cabin crew get to their seats, nor life jackets utilised?