I do struggle though to reconcile now with, say 1992, because back then Ryanair and easyJet were only 4 and 5 years away. I simply, in Europe, cannot see another period of turbocharged growth in pilot jobs like the one we have just experienced. There simply isn't scope for another 450 jet airline in the EU even with the complete modernisation of the Eastern nations.
The goldrush is over. The industry has sucked in a vast swathe of relatively youngish pilots and recruiting in the JAA/EASA states is going to drop right off. Back to normal some might say. But normal is going to feel fairly frugal.
Completely agree. And the delusion isn't just the wannabe's.
I see colleagues heading off to the desert with no command time in their logbooks, firmly convinced that they are off for a 3 year stint, living the playboy dream on the 777, living in "Pussy Towers" in Dubai before returning to the UK to settle down. They all seem convinced that UK airlines in 3 -4 years time will be just dying to put 777 rated FOs on command courses for A320/B737 bucket-and-spade routes.
What happens to recruitment when RYR take delivery of their last -800? How long will it be before we see a 15 or 20 year wait for command at EZY or RYR. What will this do to wannabe recruitment? Non-expanding airlines don't have large recruitment needs...
Recession is an arse btw