Surface drift
Thanks for this information mm43.
A few thoughts:
1. A human body in the water will drift with the water current much more so than it will be "blown" through the water by wind. Bodies are mostly water, have a density just a little greater than or just a little less than water (hence some sink and some float), and there is little above the water to catch the wind. So the drift of bodies predominantly reflects the effects of water currents.
2. Other materials found will drift with a hybrid of water current and wind - depending on their density, the shape, and the proportion above the water to catch the wind.
3. Kerosene floats on top of the water and hence its drift will be significantly wind effected - far more so than bodies. We don't know if the pollution was Jet A1 or not. Was it ever tested to determine its nature? - I imagine that oil from a ship would be much heavier than Jet A1. Is such testing even reliable after some days? - have the lighter fractions evaporated and hence is it possible to determine the nature of the fuel? If the fuel was from AF447, the ENE winds suggest the impact was upwind of this. That is hard to reconcile with:
a) bodies drifting in a sea-current to the NE and then the N, suggesting the impact was further west
b) where the authorities have searched so far
So how certain are we that the sea current was initially NE?
4. We know that the bodies all entered the water at the same time, and likely close together (barring airborne breakup of the plane). Those bodies found were always afloat and hence all were subject to the same surface current.
5. From when the bodies were found, they seemed to have been drifting pretty much due north - perhaps slightly west of due north. Of course the current may have changed over time or distance or both, and equatorial currents are especially fluky. So there is plenty of guesswork here. You can't simply extrapolate back southwards til time zero.
6. Of course if the current had been constant (and I am not sure that we know it was not), then the bodies track back pretty much exactly to a point 1-2 days wind drift ENE of the "pollution" spot.
So did the plane turn to the right (and not the left) after encountering severe turbulence beyond the last known point? What do the pilots here think?
a) We believe that the Captain was not on the deck at this time. If the two pilots flying at that time decided to divert around weather but still keep going to Paris (ie not return to Sth America), then which way would they more likely turn?
b) Faced with severe turbulence requiring a change of course, would you chose to get closer to land rather than turning left towards the middle of the north Atlantic?
c) Would the recent communication problems with Africa mean you would tend to turn towards Africa (expecting that communication would improve) rather than further away?