Your pretty little graph shows how little an understanding you have. Statistics can be massaged to prove any argument a person wishes to put. The records are for aircraft certified to carry 13 or more passengers. You don't need to be an Einstein to understand how the number of wide body versus Beech 1900 type aircraft accidents in any one year can skew the data.
Aviation Week & Space Technology, Monday, March 19, 2007
Making "Safe" Safer
The NTSB Relishes The Recent Air Record
The unfortunate fact of our existence upon this good earth is that there will always be accidents -- otherwise, they could stop building trauma centers in hospitals. Some years ago, an ICAO official was asked by a reporter (when a zero rate in some aviation accident statistic had been reached): "I guess you'll be breaking out the champagne then?"
The ICAO official's cynical (albeit ungrammatical) retort: "No. We consider it to be a statistical aberration that we don't ever expect to see repeated again." Perhaps he was just trying to emphasize the fickle nature of statistical conclusions.
From the Report Card submitted by the National Transportation Safety Board last week, the industry as a whole has an outstanding record of which we can all be proud, but that doesn't mean we can rest on our laurels and not strive for that elusive zero rate in spite of the ICAO assessment.
After all, the oft-repeated "that could've easily been me" runs through our minds each and every time we turn on the television and see the ruinous aftermath of yet another seemingly inexplicable accident. The other sobering aspect of any such record is that it's necessarily historical and that the only thing that counts for you, and those you hold dear, is what's coming down the pike to change it all -- "for better or for worse" as they say in that other commonplace disaster. More on that gloomy perspective later.
So what was good in that NTSB summary? First, the overall accident rate dropped again in 2006, although marginally. Passenger and cargo carriers operating larger aircraft under 14 CFR Part 121 continued, as expected, to have the lowest accident rates in civil aviation. In 2006, they carried 750 million passengers more than 8 billion miles while logging more than 19 million flight hours.
The cost was 31 accidents, a more than 20 percent drop from 2005. Only 2 of those 31 accidents were fatal, resulting in 50 fatalities. It equals .01 accidents per 100,000 flight hours or .018 accidents per 100,000 departures. For those who like their statistics mirror imaged, this translates to, on average, only 1 accident every 266 million miles, 630,000 hours flown, or 368,000 departures. The odds are that everybody has a much better than even chance of not making one of those unfortunate TV appearances.
On-demand part 135 operators had 54 accidents, down almost 20 percent from 2005, with 10 of those accidents resulting in 16 fatalities (or 1.5 accidents and .28 fatal accidents for every 100,000 hours flown). Part 135 covers air taxi, air tour and air medical operations. Scheduled Part 135 (commuter) operators experienced only 3 accidents, one of them fatal, resulting in two fatalities.
In General Aviation there was a total of 1,515 accidents, 303 of them fatal, resulting in 698 fatalities. Even though GA accounts for half of all civil aviation flight hour activity, it should be noted that the claimed drop-off in accidents is partly related to a decline in GA activity. Since 1990, according to NTSB, GA activity has declined by 20 percent and the rate has thus remained stable at 7.5 accidents per 100,000 flight hours.
What are the factors in the looking glass that could reflect or inflict future changes in our presently stable stats? Disregarding security concerns, there are a dismal myriad of these:
a. Looming pilot shortages and some of the measures being taken to address the situation (ICAO's MPL or Multi-crew Pilot's License).
b. Outsourcing of maintenance as driven by the need to pare costs and boost profit margins.
c. New technologies (including the next generation air traffic control system).
d. The rise in low-cost minimalist operations under deregulation worldwide.
e. Directly related to d., a marked trend toward tasking pilots up to the legal limits.
f. The Very Light Jet swarm (and the manning of those fleets).
g. The increasing popularity of sports aviation.
h. A denser air traffic environment.
i. Diminishing experience levels among air traffic controllers, some of which will be related to their perceptions of their longer term prospects in a different ATC environment (NextGEN).
We've not mentioned the new age limit of age 65 retirement, because that is extremely unlikely to blip any statistic anywhere. And we'll not even stand by to eat our words on that claim. To borrow a phrase from that well-known non-aviator Forrest Gump: "Safety is as Safety Does". Only the really dumb take chances.