justanothersat.................you have hit all the nails on the head except one: the unfathomable and usually illogical processes of BA HR.
There will undoubtedly be many very able, very experienced, first-class crew who will/have missed out on both Cityflyer and the Mainline selection due to the vaguaries of the above mentioned department.
Regretably, the day that touchy-feely HR 'experts' became involved in pilot selection was the day that it all became a word-processing lottery to secure a seat.