As other posters have made clear, there is far more to a shift to BA than £££. But since it is the title of the thread, let me expand on "Time to Command".
Factors one needs to assess/determine to make an educated guess:
- Age Profile of current BA pilots. Essentially max 58, then guess maybe an ~even distribution down to ~25.
- Average Retirrement age of BA Pilots. Hard to say, but I'd guess at ~62 - majority go on as long as possible, balanced by a few going earlier, voluntarily or involuntarily. But if the retirement age increases further
- Change in pilot numbers. Has not changed much over last 15years, and not BA's aim/ability to "expand" much. Slight increase in aircraft numbers coming up, but if they get painted white/orange and red not a lot of use for BA Pilot numbers
- P1 v P2 ratio. Substantially <50%, and with any expansion more LH orientated, will further reduce.
- How many P2s do not take a Command when they could? Desire for LH / Commuting means this is good number - but pay / tax / Pension implications could affect it.
- Take up of Part Time. Likely to increase, and hopefully by P1s
- IB factor ???? Do not forget there is not really an airline called "BA" now... it is a subset of IAG, and who knows what, if any, the implications will be for the "BA Pilot Seniority list/numbers"
I made an analysis / best guess before joining BA in 1996, and came up with 7-8 years, and was lucky enough for the numbers to make it 6.5. But when I joined, a new LHR Capt on the then "junior fleet" (757/767) was ~22yrs.
NoD