Bearfoil, one more observation and then I shut up for awhile (I hope. {^_-})
As I noted the lack of communications is very troubling, at least to me. I am communications (engineering) oriented. So I tend to see it as a solution to problems at almost every level from communications between stick and elevators through communications between plane and control locations on the ground to communications between employees at ALL levels of Air France and BEA. This extends onwards to communications from them to the rest of the world.
So as soon as they could not contact their controller in Africa they should have done something about it before getting near the storm area. Two tries then hit 121.5 and bug an airborne "neighbor" within a two or three hundred miles for a relay. With my heavy communications background I am perhaps blinded to obvious reasons they might not have. But it does leave me with an additional period of apparent inactivity on the part of the pilots that I cannot explain. Nor can I explain why it seems to be glossed over in reporting and why this obvious (partial) fix to a vulnerability in the system is not being fixed. Of course, this extends the time frame of my event tree analysis. It may partially explain why NOBODY heard a peep from them when they got into their pickle. They were either VERY busy continuously or had no power for communications.
(And out over the ocean I'd "aviate", get altitude, communicate, then navigate. But that's a side point. Flight and altitude give cushion, a report to ground by one pilot as the other recovers bearings for navigation would be in order over ocean. If altitude and position are uncertain comunications could be a life saver for them and other planes. Over land with a LOT of other planes very nearby the order needs to be fly, fly in the right place at the right time, communicate for every clear reasons.)
Anyway, for my thinking the event trees start branching within tens of seconds after their last attempt to contact Africa. And I also note that I see several holes in the communications protocol. Many of them could be the communications hole AF447 fell into.
As an aside, how long does the CVR recording to backwards in history? It may be quite important to get it if the recording goes back to their last communications attempt.
{o.o}