Eyes only,
First off, it is clear that you are an A380 fan and that I favor the 748. It sounds as if you know your numbers, but the ones you provided did not directly address the comparison between the A380 and 748I.
1) With regard to fuel burn, I learned subsequent to my post that Lufthansa considers the seat / km cost to be 3% higher on the 748I with similar cabin arrangements. The burn was something like 3.4 liters per 100km on the 748I compared to the A380's 3.3 liters. I would say that is a negligible advantage unless you are convinced you can run the A380 at capacity. The trip cost, on the other hand, is most assuredly higher on the A380. This is definitely a consideration and often the first metric airlines look at before purchasing an aircraft. Realistically, load factors run somewhere around 80%. Assuming this to be the case, the A380's advantage evaporates.
2) With regard to belly cargo, the comparison is between the A380 and the 748I, not the 744. Even if the two airplanes have the same cargo volume (I think the 748I may have the A380 beat by 2 LD3s), there should be more room to carry cargo on the 748 due to fewer passenger bags. Regardless of whether it is express freight or not, more cargo volume equals more revenue potential.
3) My Qantas example was just something I heard, not fact. However, I will say that paying to lift mandatory fuel is never a good thing in that it costs money without making any. I am not sure how much build-up is required on QF transpacs, but it seems likely that it occurs frequently and would for CX on the NoPac routes as well. To this end, I do not think the A380 will be doing HKG-JFK, but the 748I very well could.
4) I never said the 748 had commonality with the 744F, although I am sure that it does have some. My point was that the 748F will already be set up at CX by the time any 748Is would potentially arrive. Therefore, the infrastructure would already be in place with only the 748F / 748I differences to add.
5) Over time, I am sure the novelty of the A380 will wear off. However, I do not doubt that it exists now. I think that the relative advantage which it has now over the 747 and 777 service it competes with will be diminished by the 787 and 748I interiors. Also, consolidating flights is, in general, not something CX seeks to do. They like to add frequency so as to better serve business travelers. This makes it easier to pull capacity during downturns which is something I would be very concerned about with the A380 and its trip costs.
6) You are correct about the cabin pressure, but the humidity will be exclusive to the 787 and, presumably, the 350.
7) I am not going to argue about the track record of Airbus vs Boeing aircraft. It would be a complete waste of time as we both know who builds better machines.
