380?

[cxorcist]

Without having all the facts on the A380 since they seem not to be published anywhere, my understanding is that there are a few problems with it as it pertains to Cathay Pacific.

1) The seat & tonne costs per km, despite being a larger aircraft, are higher than those of the 748I (Boeing website). Whether this is true or not, the trip costs are without question higher on a much heavier airplane.

2) The A380 cargo space is limited relative to the number of seats on the aircraft. Therefore, the highly lucrative revenue downstairs is limited by all the passenger bags. CX makes boatloads of cash on belly cargo. The 748I has 26% more belly cargo capacity than the 744 (Boeing website) with only a 12.2% increase in passenger seats.

3) For Trans-Pacific flights (SYD-LAX), my understanding is that the 380 cannot carry much additional revenue when compared to the 744ER. This, I'm told, is primarily due to the massive build-up of mandatory fuel resulting from so few en-route alternates being available. I am not sure if this would be the case in the North Pacific, but I don't imagine that PASY or PACD can handle the A380.

4) The 748F will be established at CX. Training, logistics, maintenance, etc for the 748I would mostly be within the existing infrastructure. The addition of the A380 would be another type to bring into the company. With the A350 coming in 2016+, I think bringing two new types on board would be viewed as a negative economically and operationally.

5) The A380 is not a good recession airplane because it is so large. CX prefers operational flexibility and route frequency, which is why they love the 773ER so much. The 748I would have more flexibility than the A380 regionally and on ULH routes (HKG-JFK).

6) All indications are that passengers love the A380 and buy tickets accordingly. While I am sure this is true, I am not sure the same would not be the case for the 748I. My understanding is that it will incorporate many of the same interior features as the passenger friendly 787 (minus the cabin's higher humidity & lower altitude of course). Not that it matters anyways, CX will put horrible seats in whatever they buy.

7) CX has not had the best experience with Airbus. I think there is a distrust there that stems from the early mechanical problems with the 330 and the 346 that never really lived up to the claims wrt long-haul performance. The Boeing aircraft, by contrast, tend to meet or exceed expectations (like with the 744ERFs and 777ERs). The A350 order was, IMO, just a statement by CX that they have no intentions of going to an all Boeing fleet. I think the company is viewing the A350 as a replacement aircraft for the A330s, A340s, and 772s. However, they have no desire to be tethered to one company and most definitely not an American one at that.

For these reasons, I simply cannot see CX ordering the A380. I am happy to be wrong and corrected on any of the above. Perhaps a limited order of A380s for the European markets makes sense, but the risks associated with the A380 seem greater than the rewards when compared to the 748I.