Whilst I'm glad I'm not at kinloss at the moment as they face the greatest uncertainty, I don't anyone at waddo is that much safer. The drawn down will take years not months, which is more than enough time for postings to come to an end. Also whilst it's harder to shoehorn people into flying roles, ground tours can easily be swapped around to employ the people you want to keep. Regardless of location, I imagine there will be a pecking order of those to go first to the wall. Anyone on 'reserved rights', sat in a non flying job they been doing for years without any intention of returning to flying would be my first choice.