bearfoil,
I share your thoughts. I tend to come to the conclusion that such high-speed impact with water is a chaotic process. Trying to visualise it in 'slow motion' involves a lot of speculation. There must have been high levels of vertical and horizontal acceleration, water rushing in at a pressure of over 200 psi. Perhaps instead of saying what caused a particular damage pattern, it would be better to think in terms of what could have caused it. Can you conclude that it could not have happened as BEA describes it, or just that it could have happened differently?
regards,
HN39