Nimrod MRA.4

[DFM]

This is madness

I would contend that agreeing to the removal of the Nimrod MRA4 is an act of stupidity and an abrogation of responsibility by the Govt, the MOD and the AFB. Irrespective of the impact this decision will have on the good people of RAF Kinloss and the local populace in Morayshire, the impact it will have with respect to the defence and safety of this country in the long term is clearly the more significant and one that cannot be ignored. As a maritime nation how is it possible to defend the fact that we will no longer have an airborne platform capable of essential support to the independent nuclear deterrent, maritime surveillance, long range SAR, maritime interdiction and strike, rapid and adaptable intelligence gathering, maritime force projection and long range focused intervention.

The threats posed towards the interests of the UK in 2010 and beyond are well known; there are others around the corner that we can only make reasoned assessments on. This defence review obviously had to have a focus on the immediate plans that we have in support of OP HERRICK. At the same time we were led to believe that it was also looking beyond Afghanistan; this decision clearly shows that either the Govt have their heads in the sand, or there are ulterior political reasons behind it.

Having listened to the AFB message since the current CAS took charge, it was clear that Combat ISTAR was central to the future of the RAF. And I do not hold with the parochial view that the FJ centric AFB would not give full support to the MRA4. There is no single platform in the RAF inventory, let alone one that is ISTAR specific that fulfils more of the current UK Military Tasks than the MR variant of the Nimrod, either MR2 past or MRA4 future; so how can the Govt and AFB concede we can do without it? Or, does the Govt not understand what this platform actually provides, what ability will be lost, or are they quite simply afraid of the bad publicity that the name “Nimrod” seems to generate with a section of the general public. I am just not convinced this is about pure cost saving, and I can only hope that many people in the know will now come forward with the real facts about the supposed savings to be had as a result of this decision. Already there is significant doubt as to whether or not we will actually get the £200m year on year saving over the next 10years. I for one will be surprised if it is proportionally any more cost efficient than the reasons given behind not cancelling an aircraft carrier, a carrier that will be without strike aircraft for the foreseeable future or any LRMPA surveillance and protection at all.

We have just reached a crossroads in defence. At RAF Kinloss this week when CAS commented on how he had repeatedly reiterated to the NSC and the PM why this capability should not be lost, everyone in the hangar understood why; but it appears the Govt clearly does not understand the magnitude of the risk they have accepted. Therefore, I wonder if anyone within the AFB, MOD, or even the Govt front bench, namely the Secretary of State for Defence, will now have the integrity or the will power to look again at ways in which this ridiculous decision can be reversed. Or, if only a few days on this is deemed impossible, that they indicate how strongly they believed in the advice and direction they brought to bear and simply do the honourable thing. Because if they do not, I believe all that they have said privately and in public on the run up to SDSR is hollow, meaningless and undermines their position. This is not just about being principled, this is about refusing to publicly support a policy that is downright reckless and dangerous in the extreme. I do not want to wait for a time in the future (and it will happen) when someone is wheeled out to explain how they opposed the decision but were powerless to act. A Govt understands all about presentation and if significant sections of the great and good made their feelings more public, we might even get the Govt and MOD to rethink.

I have added the Military Tasks that I believe the Nimrod MR2 has contributed towards over the last 10 years and what the MRA4 is capable of contributing to in the future. Some would argue it does not tally, others may think it falls short, see what you think:

MT 1.2—Nuclear deterrence
MT 2.1—Military aid to the civil authorities (MACA)
MT 2.2—Integrity of the UK
MT 3.1—Defence and security of the Overseas Territories
MT 3.3—Security co-operation: support to current and future contingent operations
MT 3.4—Security co-operation: strengthen international peace and stability and support wider British interests.
MT 4.1—Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief
MT 4.2—Evacuation of British citizens overseas
MT 4.6—Power projection
MT 4.7—Focused intervention


As a total aside, let's just wait and see what impact this decision has on the (behind closed doors) special relationship.


A sad day indeed…………DFM, over & out.