I would expect that everyone will recognize that it takes some finite period of time to acquire the skills necessary to pilot an airplane. Depending on the method taken, civilian or military, it could take a person between 3 and 13 months to get a CPL with an IR (potentially a CFI) and somewhere around 250 hours of logged flight time going the civilian route. The quality of the schools offering this training run the gamut of “wonderful” to “not-so-much.” The military route would take approximately 53 weeks to get through Undergraduate Pilot Training and then another 3 to 6 months to qualify on the specific airplane the military has assigned; this would put about the same amount of flight time in your military records – approximately 250 hours. Not much difference between the time involved.
If the pilot has gone the civilian route there is a reasonable chance that the pilot in question may have the necessary qualifications to adequately serve as a viable FO in airline operations. If the pilot has gone the military route (and you can feel free to believe that I am prejudiced on this point – it is true, I am prejudiced) it is my opinion that any given graduate would make a quite viable FO in airline operations at that point – of course, the military is going to get their “pound of flesh” in the form of 5 to 6 years of active duty military time.
Be that as it may, if we are merely comparing the viability of the graduates of these two differing routes to be in a position to present one’s self as a viable candidate for a vacant FO position for an airline – I am of the opinion that the odds are significantly greater that the military graduate would be considered viable than would the civilian graduate. Not only that, of two graduates (one from each source) it wouldn’t surprise me to see that the military trained person would be “head-and-shoulders” better than the person completing the civilian route. Why? Because of my personal knowledge of how that person was trained – knowing what subjects were taught, the level of integration between ground schools and flight training lesions; the level of pilot performance that is deemed to be “satisfactory” in each area – and the level of self-understanding and the accuracy self-assessment that each graduate can demonstrate. Yes – I do know the variances of civilian pilot training schools … and yes, there are some civilian pilot schools that can, and often do, produce reasonably acceptable pilots – although in a typical graduating class of … say 20 pilots … only about 5 (or 25%) would be what I would equate to the level I would be interested in interviewing for prospective positions within “my” airline. On the other hand, of a typical military graduating class … say of 40 graduates … there would likely be only 1 or 2 (or 2½% to 5%) that I would NOT place in the same “competence” category – and I only say that because of mere mathematical, statistical logic. In reality, it would be highly unlikely to have any graduate who would not be such a viable candidate.
Because there isn’t any record (of which I am aware) of what screening process a typical pilot training school uses to select their students, I cannot say whether or not the 15 other graduates of that civilian class of 20 would have been successful in getting through the military screening to have been admitted to the pilot training program in the military. If they would have been successful in getting through that screening process (and I personally don’t believe that would have happened), then the difference would have to be the quality of the training that was, or would have been, made available. Were this the case, it would have to be resulting from one or more of several factors – not the least of which is the competence and dedication of the instructors – but also includes those attributes of those who develop and over-see the administration of the instruction, practice, and evaluation processes – as well as the level of fidelity and reliability of the training equipment and the sequence and scheduling of the training program itself – and the determination and dedication of the individual students, themselves. All of these factors are regularly reviewed from a standardization perspective, records are reviewed, standardization evaluations are administered to the instructor/evaluation staff and the facilities and equipment has specific performance and maintenance regimens that must be met.
This is a round-about way of describing the 2 major issues that a typical pilot training school is not likely to have available in any anticipation of that school producing a “viable” airline applicant; 1) an exceptionally good screening process; and 2) an exceptionally good pilot training program.
If either of these factors are not made a part of the program I have been describing, then I would freely admit that seeking airline FO candidates with a CPL/IR and a minimum of 1500 hours of logged flight time would be a better choice – not A LOT better choice, but a better choice – than hiring someone with a CPL and IR rating with 200 – 250 hours of flight time.
I happen to believe that the necessity of hiring a whole bunch of new pilots, starting within the next 2 to 3 years – and extending for 12 – 20 years into the future is a situation that is simply awaiting the correct number of calendar pages to be ripped from the wall. By almost any measure one can name the number of new pilots needed in the US between 2013 and 2023 is between 45,000 and 60,000 pilots. I’ve posted some of the details of these numbers previously – but once again … this means that somewhere between 100 and 125 pilots will be needed every week throughout that 10-year period. Go back and re-read that last sentence … between 100 and 125 pilots every WEEK throughout that 10-year period. Said somewhat differently, that is between 400 and 500 pilots each month for that period. I am describing pilot requirements for the US airline market – not the world’s. IF (a very big word at times!) IF the choice is made to hire pilots with a minimum of 1500 hours of flight time – that means that each of those 100-125 pilots each week (400-500 pilots each month) will have to have had jobs that will allow them to have flown for that 1500 hours before they apply for the available airline job. You tell me … are there sufficient number of flying jobs available that will allow that number of new pilots to gain that number of “experience” hours that frequently over that period of time? I think not. If I’m correct – where are we going to get the number of pilots to do the job? From the corporate world? Perhaps to some degree … but certainly not at the needed numbers. From foreign airline sources? Perhaps to some degree … but certainly not at the needed numbers. From the military? Perhaps to some degree … but, and again, certainly not at the needed numbers. I should hasten to point out that the rest of the world is also going to be in need of pilots as well – and the three (3) regions (Europe, Asia/Pacific, Rest-of-the-World) will all be in need of numbers far in excess of what will be need in the US.
The calendar pages are being ripped from the wall – one page each month – and, like the man on TV used to say … “Time marches on.” What are we going to do to meet the aviation community needs for piloting jobs between now and 20 years from now? It’s not just a rhetorical question – it’s a question of reality and of substance. It’s going to have an answer – whether or not it’s the right answer is going to be up to us.