I agree, there is no way the decision will be reversed any time soon - 99.99% never.
During CAS's visit to Kinloss on Weds he does not seem to agree with you, stating that this is a capability that will need replacing in the long term and that we have been driven to this position by the treasury and not by any profound new thinking that deems us not to need an MPA. Although he did categorically say it will not be an MRA4 and it probably would be unmanned.