A fair counterpoint, well played.
However, there are two very serious issues that get a decided thumbs-down in terms of capability.
1. No Maritime Patrol capability. As an island nation, that's just plain stupid. As the nuclear deterrent rests on submarines that must deploy from a single base on patrol, and when that single base is in a confined channel, the deletion of this capability severely compromises the credibility of the deterrent. If Ivan truly wanted to kick off, all he has to do is deploy his submarines against the departing patrol boat to nullify any response. What are we going to do? Hastily re-arm one of the other boats and launch an attack from the surface in Faslane? When Faslane has just been nuked?
2. A decade of no offensive aircraft at sea. We'd have been better off putting a few million into HMS Belfast to at least give a gunboat diplomacy option. A lot more credible than an aircraftless carrier in five years.
Other than that, not a bad defence, but those two holes are gaping wounds with not so much as a bandaid in sight for one, and the promise of a prosthetic in 10 years time for the other.