Arkroyal, Wratten in one of his earlier statements, made it clear that in his opinion, given the forecast surface temperature, and (his) assessment of SALT, a climb to this SALT was a viable option. We can never be sure if some sort of climb was not attempted, and temperature or iceing encountered, forced a descent and rethink? Probably not, but the iceing risk would have almost certainly been a major player if and when the pilots discussed their options. Did they discuss them? who knows. Did they climb and encounter iceing and if so did this force them to descend again? Who can say for certain. What we all lack is the crystal ball. What most of us accept that we can never know what exactly happened. It is only Wratten , Day and those at MOD who have the blinding arrogance to KNOW.