Bearfoil;
BEA will satisfy as many as they can (it will be a majority), and lay off any residual doubts on weather, Radar, Training, Radio vacuum, etc. until all but the most stalwart acquiesce.
, and,
My points I make knowing that the investigation is polluted by human nature. All human endeavour is subject to an agenda.
I agree the pressures are there and that it is human nature to carry agendas but I think the pressures to determine the factors which led to this loss of control are greater than those pressures which would in any formal, final response, lead "all but the most stalwart" down the memory hole.
I believe this for two straightforward reasons:
1) A transport aircraft is not caused to fall vertically without substantive reason,
and,
2) Failed pitots do not cause an airliner to lose flying ability.
The study of the ACARS messages has been exhaustive but is a dead-end as to pin-pointing those factors from which loss of control originated. There is nothing in the ACARS necessitating LOC - Attitude information and engine power information was not entirely lost.
Any final report must account for the loss of control without the use of "sky-hooks" to bridge unknowns. If you will, any final report must rely solely upon "cranes" to do the heavy explanatory lifting.
All
anyone, including the BEA, can say at the moment is, the aircraft crashed. There is not even agreement that it was intact, although there is no evidence in the wreckage found of a high forward speed impact with the sea nor is there strong evidence for a high-altitude in-flight break-up; the vertical compression of disparate sections of the aircraft exhibit similar effects of high-vertical 'g' impact.
As you say, the BEA is not stupid. At obviously great risk of losing all credibility in the broader community, (which acknowledges loss of credibility with some already), any explanation of the accident must necessarily coherently explain these two steep improbabilities. That cannot be done without skyhooks, with the present level of knowledge of the flight and accident sequence.
Therefore I think the pressure to find the recorders is greater than the pressures to avoid same. But we'll see.
PJ2
Great Bear;
I should have read more carefully as I see you have covered these thoughts very well. Obviously I concur with your views. I post not in disagreement with
Bearfoil as I have also seen enough of this industry to know it happens. The stakes are very high regardless, so we'll see what comes of plans for the next search.