One may also wish to consider that Estonia as a country has a population of less than 1.4 million. Lithuania, where Ryanair became the dominant carrier following the demise of FlyLAL in 2009, has a population of around 3.3 million
...though VNO in total still has quite a bit more passengers than KUN. We know FR can generate demand out of nothing, however I believe there are way less EE immigrants e.g. in the UK than people from LT and LV, as EE has a stronger economy, and they have rich Finland just a short ferry journey across. Maybe FR count on the Finnish to use their TLL services. NYO will surely work, strong ties to Sweden (esp banks). BTW, again 'my' airport HHN has been ignored for a new interesting route in favour of NRN. Note LON is also in competition with EZY who go from STN. BTW, TLL-KUN isn't that close really, 620km by road. People do fly VNO-TLL (some even via RIX), as other transport is a bit tedious (no trains). Still, wise FR doesn't do KUN yet, not clear this would work. One thing they could try is SXF which EZY used to serve from TLL, but gave up a few years back. BT won't be amused as this attacks their idea of a mighty Baltic base at RIX under their control.