Must say, it is very refreshing to see what appears to be actual facts in this forum, and delivered without the emotion of the usual vitriolic "childs play" that I have seen as an observer of this forum over the years - thank you ADF Flyer!
As you clearly have a good knowledge of the subject then I guess I would pose to you (more as a statement than a question) that the bulk of those who have observed the banter on this subject in this forum are confused with the fact that the latest tender process appeared to only add additional cargo space to the contract requirements. The cargo requirement selected by the ADF, from all I have read, was 150 cubic metres. This ostensibly wipes out the incumbant A330 (at 138 cubic metres) and requires an aircraft like the 777 or A340.
As you mentioned Virgin, et al, are not on the panel so anyone on the panel would need to source a 777 or A340. I would bet that the fuel consumption of the 777 would knock it out straight away, thus the A340 becomes the only real alternative. But nobody in Australia operates A340's (so for an Aussie AOC operator it would be a "first of type" introduction). Yet I also read that it was the politicians and the ADF themselves that pushed the current contractor to do the operation under an Aussie AOC. Very confusing.
The end result would therefore have to result in either increased contract prices for the incumbant operator (who would need to add the A340 to their Australian AOC and pass on such costs - including any additional operating costs) OR a change to a "foreign" solution brokered by the brokerage firms on the tender panel.
So my confusion is based on this.... why on earth would the ADF decision makers put themselves through so much angst to gain 12 cubic meters of cargo space in their troop transport solution when they must have military cargo operations around the world on a continuous basis?
I've got to say, from my viewpoint it certainly looks more "suspicious" than "stupid". I can see why the incumbant operator would be asking questions. Particularly when you add in the factor of the gentleman (featured in all the newspaper articles on the subject) who was working within the same department of ADF (and close to such decision makers) and who has been revealed as also working as an adviser for the broker who miraculously had an A340 at the ready.