Bubble head, 5 or 10 minutes could be put down to a lost pax, after all it shouldn't take long to find bags on that size aircraft if they offload. These guys reckon 20-30 minutes late at best, 90min+ twice, a bit harder to pin to lost pax? Those most likely to pay the full fare don't appreciate that sort of OTP, so it might take a lot more bums paying discounted fares to reach that magical break even point!
To a casual observer, it looks like the ADL market isn't of appeal to many Tassie people, no matter who operates it or how cheap the fares may be.
Cheers
Prado