I just read that the FAA - shook and wanting to look decisive after the Colgan crash - has implemented that from the year 2013 only ATP(L)'s with 1500hrs are allowed to fly right seat for airliners. So no more CPL 200 hr cadet straight hire things.
Adam, that particular bit of regulation is in the infancy stages, presently.
The US has never had a cadet scene. With the exception of the comair pilot academy and one by mesa...both fairly low quantity suppliers of people to cockpits of any kind, US airlines generally hire off the street. The "airlines" that did hire such low time pilots were generally bottom-end, small companies flying commuter or regional routes. The wages continue to be dismal and unlivable for such operators.
A brief period several years ago did see extremely low-time pilots hired (200 hours isn't enough to hold a commercial pilot certificate), but historically one has generally needed to be around 2,000+ hours to be competitive for even regional airline seats. In fact, I can remember the frustration of being unable to find work at 2,500 hours...which is still really a low experience level. Europeans consider 1,500 hours to be an experienced pilot...but such isn't the case in the US. In fact, for legacy carriers, one has generally needed about 4,000 to 5,000 hours to be competitive. My own employer, of late, is hiring pilots in the 10,000 to 20,000 hour range, all with heavy, international experience...and has no problem finding a seemingly unending supply of applicants.
This will most likely create a shortage of pilots down the line, and many may fall by the wayside. The good thing is that this will probably mean that the airlines will have to start to pay better again. No more FO's earning $16.000/year like in the Colgan case. The bad thing is that even less people will now consider becoming pilots, and that's as bad for GA as it is for Airlines. I mean, who can possibly afford to slog around in a 172 for 1500hrs out of your own pocket, just to be able to get an interview?
Ah, the mythical pilot shortage. There has never been one, and won't be.
An airline cockpit isn't the be-all and end-all of career destinations. One can fly an entire career and never set foot in an airline cockpit and be perfectly happy...and there are more jobs in other types of cockpits than airline cockpits. The only part of the airline industry to be affected by raising the copilot hours requirement to 1,500 total time, will be the very entry-level positions at some commuter and regional airlines. To be competitive for a position anywhere else, pilots will need considerably more than that...forget any legal requirements. Nobody is competitive for a pilot position with that low a time, anyway.
The traditional route to an airline cockpit isn't flying your own airplane for 1,500 hours, and it isn't jumping into a cockpit at 200 hours, especially in the US. A pilot who shows up for his first job with 1,500 hours, all flown privately, is going to have a much harder time being considered for work than a pilot who shows up for the same interview with 1,500 hours of experience that has been gained professionally. Anybody can buy their hours; the only requirement is to pay for it. To have worked for someone else, where one had to be good enough to compete to get the job and to keep the job, as well as to pass the additional testing, training, and recurrent exams, checkrides, interviews, etc, is something that's significant to many employers. Professional training, especially by known training organizations, that's been ongoing through one's career to date, is valued.
With this in mind, traditionally in the US, pilots complete their basic flight training, and go on to become flight instructors. I didn't, initially; I became an agricultural aviator (crop duster). Others do powerline patrol, traffic watch, and aerial photography. Whatever can be found. With 500 hours under their belt, they become eligible for charter work, generally VFR single engine work. By the time they reach 1,200 hours, they can be doing multi-engine IFR work. Often pilots find themselves flying a clapped-out Twin Commander or Baron, or a Caravan. There are plenty of ways to get to 1,500 hours, and beyond, other than riding around in the cockpit of an airliner, and there really aren't that many pilots that end up in airliners with minimal experience.
As for changing conditions and higher wages with a minimum experience level of 1,500 hours, don't bank on it. 1,500 hours isn't much...it's the bare minimum for the ATP pilot certificate, which is the entry-level qualification to do that kind of flying, anyway. An ATP certificate and a dollar will buy you a cup of coffee, and that's about it. The ATP is little more than a glorified instrument rating, added to a commercial pilot certificate. More of the same.
Wages will stay low for regionals. Many regional pilots, especially those at the bottom rungs of seniority, live at or below the poverty level. Don't expect to see operators make grand changes to that bottom line, and don't expect to see the paying public volunteer to pony up the cash to make up the difference. Passengers want cheap seats, and cheap seats often tend to lead to hiring cheap pilots. Those who take the positions see it as a trade-off to get somewhere else...the 1,500 hour pilot who gets a job flying right seat in an CRJ or an ERJ hasn't arrived. He or she has just got a toe in the door, and it's a long road.
In the US, the professional pilot will often fly 10 years or more before making any kind of real profit, and may go ten or fifteen before getting into a comfortable position. I think I was sixteen years before I got a turbine job...and that was just getting started. This isn't the case for everyone...but one shouldn't have false expectations. New pilots in the US tend to get good at being creative with rice and noodles, and tend to drive old, tired cars...and in some cases, live in them.
I've a friend, a captain for a national airline in the US who lives in a camper trailer in the parking lot of an international airport, when he's on the road. He has a home at home...but when he goes to his base, he lives in his car. In fact, I interviewed for an ATR-42 position once in which the pilot I would be replacing was living in his car in a hangar...and the management of the company, flying for one of the most recognized operators in the world...had no problems with that. That was a freight operation mind you, but I was coming to them with about 5,000 hours at the time. Think about that.
This doesn't have a lot to do with why private pilots join or don't join web boards, but does have to do with your post.
As the economy picks up, more people will begin to undertake flight training again. Until then, so long as it remains expensive, aviation will continue to be the leading-edge economic indicator that it is. Aviation is always overly sensitive to the razor-thin profit margin that marks airlines, corporate flight departments, etc, with a trickle-down effect to the local FBO where people begin training for fun, or a career. Whether one is trying to justify the expense as the building block for a career (hard to do when one knows it may take ten or fifteen years to begin to see a return on that investment, and that one is really investing in a decade or more of poverty), one still has to pay the bills.
The hardest part of flying has always been paying for it. In tough times when people are more concerned about feeding them selves than spending the exorbitant fees that are required today to fly privately, it's little wonder that fewer and fewer numbers are playing the game. Much as many of us see flying as a personal necessity, doing so privately still continues to be a lavish luxury which few can afford.
Ironically, many of us who fly professionally do so because we can't afford or couldn't afford to fly privately. If I had the cash, I'd have been quite happy in my own airplane, long ago. I couldn't afford to fly, so the only way to keep flying was to find someone to pay me to do it. My job continues to be my hobby to this day, or visa versa. In the US, there's a big sacrifice to be paid if one feels that passionately about their hobby to stick by it long enough to make it into a career...but this legislation not withstanding, there's nothing new under the sun. It won't significantly impact pilot numbers, and it won't significantly impact the numbers of those who fly for fun, either.
Most importantly to this thread, it won't have any impact at all on the number of people who visit web boards to talk about flying.
As an aside, JW411 is quite correct that a large number of professionals aviators are still very avid general aviation enthusiasts, as am I. My heart is wrapped up in the experimental world, which I've long considered the heart and soul of aviation (despite the industry's fancy trappings of high-tech and fast equipment). The home-building community, where innovation, experimentation, and thinking outside the box continues to reign supreme is really the hope of the future of the industry as a whole.
Airplanes like the Cirrus, big advances for the industry over the limited selection of "spam cans" that once were the mainstay, have their roots deep in the homebuilding community. The homebuilding community, of course, inherently wrapped in private flying. Even recent advances to the point of space flight, ala the Rutan achievement, were done by people who learned their trade making surf boards. The homebuilt community, the experimental arena, has no upward limits, and is accessible to all in one way or another. This brings together expert test pilots with new private pilots, it joins the airline pilot, the commercial pilot, the private pilot at the hip with a common interest.
It's not just experimentals, however. The same is true where one flies at the local FBO. My first instructor, when I was a civil air patrol cadet way back when, was an instructor for a major airline. His hobby was spending all his free time at the local airport teaching, helping, and a lot of the time simply sitting on the couch and talking flying. If you're talking airline pilots, corporate pilots, charter pilots, freight pilots, fire pilots, police pilots, or bush pilots, every bit as much as student pilots, recreational pilots, flight instructors, banner towers, parachutists, and anyone else you can dream up...we're all the heart and soul of general aviation. We're all linked in the same way, with the same sickness and addiction that draws us to what we do.
I recently flew with one of the highest time DC-3 pilots in the world. He now flies one of our airplanes, but his heart is very much in propellers and shuddering wings and dripping oil. He loves conventional gear (tailwheels). Our flying isn't particularly exciting, but like me, he finds it exhilarating because it's flying. Period. People like him, like me,and like anyone else who participates on a web board such as this or a dirty couch full of holes at the local FBO...love flying. We love to share, we love to mentor, we love to listen, we love to participate. I've known many who would simply come to the airport on their day off to hang out, even if they didn't fly, because it's where many of us are happiest, and it's not a bad place to be.
People hang out on boards such as this because they have an interest. That interest is hard to maintain for some when they can't fly at all, but especially for people like that, boards such as this are important places where they can recharge their aviation batteries and keep some hope alive. More people will start flying when more people have more money. Until then, those that will participate on a board such as this (or any other) will, and those who won't....