PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Boeing estimate 1M pilots & engineers needed in next 20 yrs
Old 16th Sep 2010, 22:32
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FairWeatherFlyer
 
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There are lots of industries that are seeing obvious disruptive influences, but on the number 8 front,

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...-never-recover

Are people (or perhaps more importantly freight) going to fly significantly less? Are airlines going to be replaced by another form of transport? Is the need for 2 pilots going to be reduced? Are duty hours going to change? Can this (service) business be replaced by foreign companies? Will something make flight completely unaffordable? Are mergers relevant in any way to pilot staffing levels and are mergers likely in the long-term within countries that recognise (often by law) the benefits of competition?

I'm not denying that many countries have a population with a delusion caused by a debt-fuelled boom which is likely to be dismantled over the next decade... but if a 1000 Shinkansen suddenly turn up or Otto the autopilot clones himself bigtime, i'd be worried! Until that happens i think there's some life left in that industry in terms of pilot employment. Salary levels are a different question, of course...
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