The maths are quite simple:
pilots) take an assumption on phase out of 3-crew a/c, assume no significant impact of 1-crew, an assumption on age profile, retirement age and wastage and the required new crew can be calculated. The Boeing answer is roughly in line with their market forecast.
maintenance) take an assumption on maintenance savings for new a/c, an assumption on age pofile, retirement age and the wastage and the required new mtce personnel can be calculated. The Boeing answer suggests a huge problem in keeping mx personnel as they and other manufacturers claim that latest a/c need less mtce.
Marketing bull****? ... or a real industry issue?