Brian,
A few additional thoughts from a non-expert. I sometimes read these threads because I do various courses and training and also instruct a bit myself. The present dilemma for all young people about a career in aviation seems a really difficult one. The cost of training has never been so high, the risks of getting a job appear never to have been so high, and the rewards the industry offers seem to have plateaued at a level well below the historical one pilots of old enjoyed. However, for all this gloom, at some point in the future thousands of men and women who are 18 today are going to be pilots enjoying fulfilling careers.
One observation I have about some posters in your son's position is that their focus is on the "easier and more fun" question of where do I spend the £60k (ie. which school, or Modular vs Integrated) and the question of 'what are my chances of getting a job?'. This is fair enough if economics allow you to chance it.
If not, and if it is a stretch to finance the training, then I think Bealzebub's approach is right. If you'll forgive the business jargon, it's about "de-risking" this difficult/expensive dilemma.
How do you de-risk? The first part is to be able to assess the likelihood of success progressively and, ideally, ahead of significant investment (put another way, not to make the significant investments until you have solid signals about the likelihood of success). No-one can predict the industry cycle, but some young people are going to get jobs, so I'd advise focusing on the question "in this difficult climate, is my motivation and aptitude likely to differentiate me enough to be in the 'lucky' X% percentile who do get jobs"? The second part is to 'protect the downside'? What if it doesn't work out? What if have to give up the dream?
On the first part, Bealzebub has indicated the right first step. The CAA Class 1 medical is an obvious starting point. Not even worth considering any next step until you have done this.
I'd say there are 3 other steps, 2 formal, 1 informal. I am not sure in what order they should be done.
(i) is the PPL, as Bealzebub points out. There are a lot of ways one can demonstrate aptitude and motivation on a PPL course. I'd look both for the objective ones (success in training, but not obsess about it, a lot of people are 'finding their way' into flying in the PPL) and the subjective (motivation to be well prepared before and punctual before each lesson, willingness to do the boring as well as the fun elements of training)
(ii) is the ATPL written exams. These cost about £1000 for a home study course - ie. about 1% of the total training budget. I am not saying that they are an indicator of anything other than motivation and being good at exams. I am sure brilliant students are terrible pilots and vice-versa. However, absent a better way of gauging this expenditure, I'd make my son a simple proposition: you want help with £60k? Simple, let's see first time passes at over 90% on all the writtens in the next 9 months. It won't guarantee anything, and a lot of people will get jobs with much worse scores, BUT plenty of people will be able to perform like that in the writtens, so why not use that as a test of aptitude and motivation before spending the £50-100k?
(iii) is the informal side of motivation and aptitude. How much effort is being put to immerse himself into the industry and the culture of aviation? Reading (useful, well-directed reading) costs nothing. Helping out at a gliding club costs nothing. Some interesting things can be learned, dare I say it, from 'serious' PC flight simulators (including very impressive add-ons for airliner navigation computers).
I think if you had the right mix of positive signals from the medical plus (i), (ii) and (iii), you might have greater confidence in making the full investment.
The other subject is protecting the downside. My personal advice to a young person would be not to forgo the best degree they could get and afford. The ideal perhaps would be an engineering first degree, and then a 1 year aerospace or technology Masters. It's all about differentiating yourself in the pilot selection process, and having an educational background to maximise the chance of your Plan B if the flying doesn't work out.
Having said all this, the actual choice of Modular vs Integrated and which school is a relatively easy one. There are a lot of good schools out there and a lot of good advice available. Personally, I'd be impressed with someone who excelled in some way whatever course they did.
It may sound a bit silly, but I'll make a suggestion and tell me why not?
This book costs £13
ASA Test Prep 2010 - Private Pilot £11.99
This software costs £20
FAA Written Test Preparation - Private Pilot
It is the course for the FAA Private Pilot Certificate, and the software has the database of actual questions. Why not give your son the book, and a week or two of full time study (say a half-term) and then see what score he can get on a practice exam. If it's 50% or he can't be bothered, I'd worry. If it's a great score and he's keen, then I'd feel better about taking the next progressive steps towards spending £60k of equity from my home to fund the training.
I am being a bit brutal perhaps, but one reads a lot of threads about "shall I or shan't I spend £60k", and few about "how can I differentiate myself or test my aptitude and motivation before making the ATPL training decision?".
brgds
421C