Chop Rate Fluctuations....
Teeteringhead.
On a serious note to the thread you started there must be cyclical changes to how the pass rate is determined, not just at BFT and AFT but at later stages such as TWU and OCU. (Sorry, I don't know the current names, but when I went through my flying trg Brawdy and Chiv were still going strong and there were none of these reserve squadron name plates either....)
I was never a QFI or wheel in the flying training business and only saw the system from the viewpoint on being a "stude" but in the pre-Falkland Isands era when John Nott was threatening to wield the axe there was serious concern in the multi world (I went through METS at Fy in 1981 when this was a strong topic) that virtually all Canberras, Vulcans, Shacks, Andovers and even METS itself might all be for the chop which would lead to a glut of multi-engined pilots looking for a job. The QFI's themselves at METS and 242 OCU were all pretty anxious about their future posting and career prospects, let alone their studes!
The System must, albeit with extreme lag, have a way of communicating to the FTS world whether the tap is to be opened or closed. Get into the system at the "wrong" point of the cycle and your chances of passing IOT, BFT, AFT or whatever could be seriously reduced. It would be interesting to hear from those with a QFI background, how this worked in practice......
The "multi-engine bar" I am sure was raised during this time with a higher chop rate than before......Then along came the Falklands War and suddenly it was all change.....but by then it was too late for the "choppees" who ended up in other jobs or back in civvy street.
Certainly, there were lots of "holding postings" between courses then and probably there still are, and this was a way of managing the peaks and troughs but I suspect that the cuts that are coming will leave no option but for those running the system to chop trainees who would otherwise have passed a course. Hard for all.....especially for those still with stars in their eyes about all things Air Force and at the start of what for most is a life's ambition.
MB