Callsign Kilo - Much to my regret I think the time to win concessions from Ryanair was 2009 and 2010 and BALPA knew that. From 2011 on there are relatively few deliveries and more than enough FOs who will fill the command seats.
The detail on Ryanair's aircraft delivery which is publicly available on the company's website, Boeing's website, and USA Securities and Exchange Commission filings shows that there will be 272 aircraft operating in Summer 2011. That is just 22 more than we have at Ryanair this weekend and 28 less than added this year. Just google SECINFO dot com and look for Ryanair 20f. There is a vast array of data that any employee or intending cadet should read - much more than in the European annual report. 302 pages - but incredible detail about pilots.
Assuming that it remains at a crewing of less than 5 CPs per a/c that means an extra 110 CPS for summer 11. If we allow for 70 people CP leaving in next 6 months - same as now - then that is 180 extra Captains.
The command upgrade courses are running at 24 a month - and they are filling them.
Ryanair added 50 aircraft in 2010 and went from 198 last summer 2009 - to 250 in Summer 2010. The Direct Entry Cps hiring went badly - just ask any line trainer.
I think the frightening part is that PB has managed to really screw our conditions down far harder than anyone before. He introduced an all contractors policy, new leave, tax compliance and god help you if you are sick. Worst of the lot is the deeply unpopular 5/3. He does not look well lately - so if we are lucky he will leave soon as rumoured.
I cannot work out how Ryanair actually managed to operate 250 aircraft in 2010 with so few staff in my base - but they did - and that bodes ill for any improvement in terms for 2011-2013.
