Ryanair exodus, what is the plan?

[Callsign Kilo]

Lets see now, how will this one play out..hypothetically speaking of course.
If the rather bizarre memo of a few weeks ago is anything to go by, I reckon PB has crunched his numbers and as result could possibly be feeling a little bit concerned with regard to summer 2011. Between the end of this year and into next, I believe 47 new machines will be arriving from Seattle. I'm not sure what disposal rates are, however I believe 6 are certainly earmarked for withdrawl towards the end of the year. Any more will depend largely on the market, which I reckon is pretty flat. So you either store or fly your spare birds...if they are spare that is? The likelihood is that more bases are on the agenda, most probably southern or eastern european potholes with a 5/3 roster. Add the expansion of current bases who will be willing to drop their drawers quicker than a lady of the night when Ryanair 'negociates' contracts. If crew shortages do result due to exodus/lack of Captains/failure to attract OCCs/Not enough upgrades/....add other variables.... then I reckon the whole kit and caboodle will be on a 5/3 by April/May 2011.

The likes of Emirates, Etihad, Flydubai etc may just be getting in before everyone else. I don't think the figures in the context of those who are leaving will be apparent until late this year/early next. At that point we may be adding a few more airlines to the equasion, which will make things interesting. So how will management react I wonder? Fairly tactfully I would imagine. There will be no universal pay raise, transparent base policy or improved contract offer. My guess is they will address the areas that need addressing. "So we have lost the majority of pilots from X,Y and Z..yet there are no real problems at A,B or C...then sort X,Y and Z out!" Where do I get the reasoning? Ryanair have capatalised on a number of 737 operators going to the dogs in the last two or so years. As a result they were able to attract a number of DECs to OCCs. A large number who I have spoken with were actually asked where they were looking to be based. Many got where or close to where they wanted. Complete contrast to new upgrades. Why...well I reckon, once again, concern was shown from above. "We need these f**king Captains for summer 2010, make sure you get them!" Could I be wrong?

Don't forget, O'Leary's prime objective is to drive down pretty much everything, bar the share price. Much of what he says is drivel, however I do actually believe him when he suggests that his goal is for the price of a ticket on one of his flights to eventually equate to zero. He is grasping more and more control of the market, and driving down costs with it. When it comes to pilots, he has no interest in making this a touchy feely place of work. Somebody used the analogy of staff being equated little more value than the machinary that they operate. Well that's the culture of the company to be perfectly honest, same goes for the passengers, the airports, the regulators, the politicians..whoever. However back to the impending pilot question. If O'Leary is met with a crew shortage which potentially could lead to planes not pushing back, then he'll firefight it. He won't be embrassing the only real thing that he refused to embrase when Herb Kelleher shared the secrets to a successful low cost airline all those years ago. That would represent a major upheavel in culture; and that is now well and truely embedded within Ryanair. It wouldn't even change if O'Leary walked tomorrow. It isn't one person.

You know, I laugh when people exclaim on here that we should all grow some backbone and stand up to management. They obviously don't work here. It's been tried before collectively (the IALPA debacle in Dublin....and before anyone starts, people were made to look like idiots here) and individually. Individuals are just subjected to vendetta and driven out. I don't like the expression, however it's 'divide and conquer' and O'Leary has conquered many, to the point that there will never be a collective voice or a collective solution in the favour of the pilots. It also pisses me off that people come on and point the finger at the cadets for turning T&Cs into a joke. Sure there are one or two 'bank of Mummy and Daddys' lurking in every crewroom, but a lot of guys who I know are here because they were out of options. Nobody gets into flying and has the sole aim to join Ryanair! Self improvement is dead and burried and hell will freeze over before airline sponsorship returns. Therefore you can't have a gripe with the likes of Maverick777, who had a plan to get a few thousand JAR25 hours and then get out.

To be honest, as rough cut that it may be, many still are happy to be here. I will include myself in that one. However if it works for you and you can sail clear of the sh1t then no problem. There are hundreds, maybe a thousand; possibly more, that feel this way. It really is a story with two sides, if you like.