Elmo, not "over water", "from water". Where the pilot goes after that, it doesn't really matter, it's all about where (s)he lands afterwards.
Anyway, having seen the RAF pull a political blinder by agreeing to have a RN 2* in charge of maritime ops (including SHAR), and then, suddenly, conducting a re-organisation that chopped his job, including the reduction of the senior Harrier pilot (in role) from 1* to 4 ring (at best), I don't really trust the RAF to commit in a grown-up fashion about a CAG.
( quick ref for the 2* cuts:
No. 3 Group RAF - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia )