I began to notice a distinct drop in interest in aviation in general, about 20 year or so ago. I remember as a kid that aviation and airplanes were magic. The toy section of stores were full of model airplanes. Airshows were popular, and well attended. I was an active Civil Air Patrol cadet, where we joined for our nearly insatiable desire to fly and be around airplanes.
About 20 years ago, though, I noticed that the toy sections at the store contained few models, and what ones there were, were cars. Boats. The odd spaceship. But airplanes? Few and far between.
I was flying cadets as a Cadet Orientation Pilot on the weekends. In the CAP, cadets were awarded six orientation flights, in association with their rank advancements (the cadet program is somewhat like the Boy Scouts, but with airplanes, and is an Air Force volunteer auxilliary). Cadets couldn't be bothered to show up for the free flight instruction...it didn't cost them a dime except for their time and getting to the airport...but they'd have parties to go to, friends to see, and no time to fly.
Recently on one of the aviation web boards I visited, a discussion was in play about aviation history in the Pacific in WWII. When I was younger, it was second nature to have read everything one could find on that material. Anything from Otto Lilienthal to Sputnik...it was all fair game. I was amazed at kids that couldn't recognize airplanes by their outline or sound, and who didn't look up when they heard an airplane fly overhead. On this web board, though, most participants had never heard of Tinian, or about much of the Pacific war. They didn't know the airplanes, the names, the places. I was amazed.
Who doesn't see Douglas Bader as a hero, and know his story? Is this possible?
I do understand when a private pilot tells me he "used to fly." Flying is expensive. It's one thing to have a clear goal in mind when one is working toward one's Private, or toward one's Instrument rating. When that's accomplished, however, it's hard for many to justify the exorbitant costs of flying. I've always maintained that the hardest part of flying is paying for it. If that's true, the hardest part of learning to fly after paying for it is continuing to pay for it after one has achieved certification.
I own a large number of firearms. I've used them at work and in play most of my life. I've been an avid shooter and reloader for a very long time. However, lately I have little time to shoot. Ammunition in the USA has become nearly prohibitively expensive. I used to participate a lot in various firearms websites. Of late, however, I drop in occasionally, but I find it more aggravating than therapeutic in general. It's like being hungry and standing outside a diner window, looking in at the food. I suspect it's the same for many who want to fly, and can't. Playing on web boards and talking about the flying they can't do is frustrating, like rubbing salt in a wound. I think that sees the loss of many who would otherwise stay for the camaraderie, if for nothing else.
When I was flight instructing, I worked extremely hard to interest people in taking flying lessons. I towed an airplane through the longest parade in the country. I gave presentations at colleges and high schools. I towed banners advertising flying. I put up flyers, took out ads. I took an airplane apart and put it together in a mall as part of a display. I held ground schools, sold scenic rides to encourage people to learn, did all sorts of things to bring people into flying. I seldom left the airport, often sleeping in a volkswagon van behind a hangar before returning to fly more.
That level of enthusiasm and drive can only be maintained for so long. I managed to keep it going for about 20 years. I find myself still very much in aviation and driven by it, but not with the same fire as before. Part of my drive today isn't being so enamored with flying that I can think of nothing else, but that it's what I do; it's my employment. For those who don't have that pushing them along, then flying becomes largely a very expensive hobby. That requires justification, and any time a luxury or hobby must be justified, it's found being constantly weighed in the scales...and stands at risk of being tossed aside.
I think its a combination of these things, sometimes individually, sometimes severally, that leads to people falling away. There has always been a high turnover in student starts and people who enter flying and then leave. Perhaps the reason it's more pronounced today, or at least more noticeable, is that we have considerably fewer student starts today. We've still got many who come and go, but much fewer who start, and subsequently even less who stay.
Over the last couple of years I've known a number of professional pilots who elected to leave the business. Pilots who were once very dedicated, but who found themselves unable to get work for months, sometimes nearly two years...and left to pursue other vocations. None of them left happily or with any desire to leave...most drifted reluctantly and unhappily into a cubicle, or classroom, or some other place where they always regretted not being able to fly. It's not just private pilots. It's everybody. So long as the economy suffers, people suffer, and certainly aviation (a leading economic indicator and one of the first casualties of a poor economy) will suffer right along with it.