AA Crash Jamaica

[PEI_3721]

AirRabbit, re “ … they all have acquired quite a bit of experience …”

IMHO you may assume too much.
In post # 526 I suggested that it might not be possible to gain the required experience via simulation; thus, gaining experience would depend on a pilot’s exposure to real conditions, and an appropriate interpretation and association of the event with those conditions.
i.e. pilots may have operated in the conditions, but this has to be turned into experience in memory and prepared for future recall.

Also, I suggest that pilot’s are rarely exposed to really slippery runways in conjunction with a limiting distance, the latter contributing significant meaning to associate risk with the operation, i.e. where did the aircraft stop vs what was planned / expected, what did it feel like (deceleration).

Thus the problem could be the identification of the situation and associating the risks with it. This requires a timely recall of experience in real conditions (know when, know how). Application could be via the classic TEM, avoid, detect/recover, mitigate.

If you haven’t been in those conditions, then you can’t (shouldn’t) consider doing so; thus how can pilots ever be there to gain experience (catch 22)?
What I am implying is that many accidents of this type occur in conditions which either have not been experienced before, or were not anticipated – they were a surprise.
Thus the problem is how we can reduce surprise.
With previous experience of the conditions (training) … or even with imagination?

Fundamental surprise.

Thinking Ahead.