I think it's pretty obvious that there is already a shortage of qualified pilots. Some of incidents on the list below are essentially murder by proxy: corrupt civil aviation agencies hand-in-glove with local airlines to put incapable numb-nuts in flight decks:
-737 in the ocean off Sharm-al-Sheikh
-A320 in the ocean off Bahrein
-A310 in the ocean off Comores
-A330 into the ground at Tripoli
-A320 into the sea off Sochi
-B737 into the sea off Beirut
-B737 off the end in Cochin
Several years ago I remember reading in Flight a prophecy that the increasing size of the airline fleet worldwide and the decreasing pool of capable aviators would combine to produce a hull loss per week in the near future. At the time I thought it was absurd and alarmist but here we are.
It will get worse.