Flaws in a perfect storm
Juan Tripp
There are a few wrinkles in the scenario you paint. First of all, there is the assumption that Len McCluskey will become General Secretary. There are a number of candidates for the slot, some of whom have pretty good grass roots coverage, so success is not guaranteed. The problem for BASSA is if they pick the wrong horse. Len is not loved by a lot of folk. Even if Len is elected, my guess is he will want to distance himself from any current dispute unless it is pretty much a gold plated certainty to succeed. So whilst he may have made encouraging noises in the past, given the dispute has been going on so long with little prospect of success, he will probably want to walk away and blame his predecessors for gettng the union into an unwinnable situation.
Whether Mr Tomato gets his show of hands support for continued strike action is immaterial. Any further action will require a new ballot ordered by the union. Again, any new General Secretary will want to make damned sure he/she is backing a winner here. There will be intense scrutiny of the basis for strike action. The last thing a new person wants is to be accused of incompetence in their first few days in the job. So the lawyers will need to pore over the fine print and be able to state categorically that the cause cannot be linked in any way with the previous walkouts. Next is the ticklish issue of getting a mandate. It will be one thing to get a majority from cabin crew for strike action, but if the fiasco of the consultative ballot is repeated, it will throw any strike action in jeapordy. No point in walking out if you have minimal support from your members. Very humiliating for the union if BA is able to run a full operation using only existing crew - i.e Mixed Fleet and current cabin crew. Before Len or anyone else sanctions a ballot, they want to be very certain that the dice are loaded in their favour.
What about Duncan Holley himself ? Again, the man is in a dangerous situation. Whilst the old guard may have tolerated his foibles, there is no guarantee that a new bunch will be supportive. He's not employed by BA, BASSA need to hold elections to fill the current gaps. Even if all the sacked staff go to tribunal and win against BA, the outcome is likely to be a cash settlement, not the job back. So Duncan won't get his job back. Duncan is now associated with failure and failure is not tolerated. He'll be out on his ear.