Old Engineer:
First of all: Really Great Work !!!
I have a careful question regarding:
I browsed around a bit in the qestion of how much force it would take to remove the VS. I looked at HN39's calculations and his sketch of the dimensions of the anchorage points. He is right-- the static pull to get it tumbling forward is 66 g's, perhaps even more.
Do you think the weakening of the mounting structure could have also happened by simply impacting the water with the tailcone first?
In other words: could it be possible that the supporting structure was damaged first by the impact and only then the VS departed ?
I'm alway a fan of simple explanations, although sometimes reality takes a more complex path...