I would not be surprised if FR starts the STN route using a STN aircraft as im sure they don't want to give up their large share of the BHD-LON market. However we have seen FR pull routes that are performing well when they have fallen out with local authorities/airports.
BD have been reducing at BHD for a bit (used to be 8 rotations a day!!) so I don't think FR's move will change this. I thought that the BHD route used to be one of their better performing routes.
I don't see BE been interested in any of the routes. STN would compete against LGW. We lost interest in BRS when EZY and FR moved in their. BE go for the business traveller on the GLA market. We do not operate into EMA from any of our other bases and I do not see that changing any time soon. Finally PIK would just compete with the GLA, and we have lots of rotations to MAN with EZY covering the LPL market from BFS.
I think EZY could move in on the LPL route and maybe move a couple of rotations from BFS if FR doesn’t re-start it using a LPL aircraft.